Map of closures and receiving schools (ported from the pps-data repository), the 2031-32 measures PPS published in its regional summaries, and every school's projected enrollment from 2025-26 to 2035-36.
Map: closures, receiving schools and moves
Scenario impact by region: enrollment, access, buildings, staffing and costs
The closure count and the six sustainability measures (2031-32) are PPS's own figures from its regional summaries and district scenario overview. The remaining columns are this analysis's estimates: building utilization, residents within 15 minutes of their school, building costs (capital, plus the operating cost of closed buildings), school staffing under PPS's staffing formula, and assessor land value. Under each scenario, changes are shown against Status Quo (percentage points for the sustainability measures, closures as a count). "Sustainable" schools are above the size threshold (K-5: 360, K-8 and middle: 500, high: 1,100).
Click a region to see its schools in 2031-32, using this analysis's enrollment projection. Each school shows its status under the scenario; whether it is above its size threshold (✓ counted as sustainable, ✗ not); its projected enrollment and change from Status Quo; and its students in each group. Bold group counts are in a sustainable school and count toward the region's share; struck-through counts do not. Region share = bold counts ÷ all counts. Building utilization uses the 2021 Long-Range Facility Plan's functional capacity, which reflects 2021 grade configurations, so utilization for converted K-8s and for buildings taking new grades is indicative only.
Staffing impact: positions no longer needed
Applies PPS's 2026-27 school staffing formula (Proposed Budget, Volume 1, pp. 206-210) to every school's projected enrollment under the selected scenario and under Status Quo in the same year; the difference is positions the formula no longer funds. K-5 homerooms are counted grade by grade from each school's 2025-26 grade mix, so they capture students filling open seats at receiving schools. Counts are licensed-equivalent FTE (an administrative assistant counts as half). Positions funded by equity, Title I, special education, multilingual, Measure 98 and grants, which largely follow students, are excluded. Whether reductions become layoffs, reassignments or attrition is PPS's decision. Costs use 2026-27 General Fund salary per budgeted FTE by employee type plus associated payroll costs (pension, FICA, health and other benefits, about 56% of salaries; Proposed Budget p. 100): about $159k per licensed FTE (matching the roughly $159.5k per formula FTE implied by PPS's October 6 board slide 7), $265k per principal or assistant/vice principal, and $81k per administrative assistant. They are averages in 2026-27 dollars, without raises or cost escalation, and exclude custodial, utilities and other building operating costs.
Projected enrollment by school, 2025-26 to 2035-36
Years in which projected enrollment exceeds the building's 2021 functional capacity (PPS 2021 Long-Range Facility Plan). Capacity reflects 2021 grade configurations, so flags for K-8s becoming K-5 and for buildings taking new grades are indicative only.